Ranking the main risks that can lead to the pollution of the marine environment in the Black Sea
Keywords:
risks, overall priority, shipwrecks, ship collision, human errors
Abstract
The aim of this paper is to present the way in which the main risks that can lead to the pollution of the marine environment of the Black Sea can be ranked using multicriteria analysis, based on the AHP process (Analytic Hierarchy Process). This analysis represents a solid basis for the decision-making process. Based on this hierarchy, the decisionmakers in the maritime field can easily visualize both the risk assessment criteria and the risks that must be taken into account. The analyzed risks (oil spills, shipwrecks, ship collision, fire explosion) in relation to the considered criteria (bad weather conditions, highdensity traffic, human errors, ship age) have been ranked as follows: "ship collision" risk with overall priority = 0.366 is the one that must be considered the most dangerous in relation to the considered criteria, followed in descending order by the risk of "oil spills"
with overall priority = 0.303, the risk of "shipwrecks" with overall priority = 0.181 and finally the risk of "fire explosion" with overall priority = 0.150.
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References
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[29] Stingheru,C., Rusu, E., Gasparotti, C. “The Cause-Effect Method Used in Highlighting the Main Causes and Implications of Maritime Accidents in the Black Sea”, ICTTE Belgrade, Serbia, International Journal for Traffic and Transport Engineering, 283-289, 2018.
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[32] Velea, L., Bojariu, R., Cica, R. “Occurrence of Extreme Winds over the Black Sea During January Under Present and Near Future Climate”, Turkish Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences 14: 973-979, 2014.
[33] Wang, J., Zhou, Y., Zhuang, L., Shi, L., Zhang, S. “A model of maritime accidents prediction based on multi-factor time series analysis”. Journal of Marine Engineering & Technology 1–13, 2023.
[34] *** https://www.wartsila.com/ insights/article/how-climate-change-is-impacting-shipping-and-maritime-trade.
[2] Awal Z., Hasegawa K. “A study on accident theories and application to maritime accidents”, Procedia Engineering, Vol. 194: 298–306, 2017.
[3] Beinat, E. and Nijkamp, P., (editors). (1998). Multi-criteria analysis for land-use management. Kluwer, Dordrecht.
[4] Brunnelli, M. (2015). Introduction to the Analytic Hierarchy Process. SpringerBriefs in Operations Research. P. 83. 978-3-319-12502-2 (electronic). 10.1007/978-3-319-12502-2.
[5] Cakir, E., Sevgili, C., Fiskin, R. “An Analysis of Severity of Oil Spill Caused by Vessel Accidents”. Transp. Res. Part D Transp. Environ. 90: 1026620, 2021.
[6] Carpenter, A. “Oil Pollution in the North Sea: The Impact of Governance Measures on Oil Pollution over Several Decades”. Hydrobiologia, 845: 109–127, 2019.
[7] Chiotoroiu, B. and Ciuchea, V. “Severe weather conditions and maritime accidents along the Romanian Black sea coast”, Proceedings of the Marine Traffic Engineering Conference, Malmo, Suedia, October 2009, Publisher Maritime University Szczecin, Poland, 2009.
[8] Chitac, V., Toma, A., Atodiresei, D. “Integrated management system for intervention in maritime accidents and distress situations on the Black Sea”. Mircea cel Batran Naval Academy Scientific Bulletin, Volume XVII, Issue 2, 2014.
[9] Gasparotti, C., Rusu, E. “Methods for the Risk Assessment in Maritime Transportation in the Black Sea Basin”. J Environ Prot Ecol, 13 (3A), 1751, 2012.
[10] GLOBE project. Evolution of extreme meteorological phenomena and their influence on the maritime transport in the western basin of the Black Sea, www.globe-cnmp.ro/Raport_4_2.pdf (in Romanian), 2011.
[11] Godinho P. , Costa J.P. , Fialho J., Afonso R., (2011). Some issues about the application of the analytic hierarchy process to R&D project selection. Global Business and Economics Review, Vol. 13, No. 1
[12] Ivan, A., Gasparotti, C., RUSU, E. “Influence of the Interactions between Waves and Currents on the Navigation at the Entrance of the Danube Delta”. J Environ Prot Ecol, 13 (3A), 1673, 2012.
[13] Knutson, T. R., Chung, M. V., Vecchi, G., Sun, J., Hsieh, T-L. and Smith, A. J. P. “Climate change is probably increasing the intensity of tropical cyclones” ScienceBrief Review:. In: Critical Issues in Climate Change Science, edited by: Corinne Le Quéré, Peter Liss & Piers Forster. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4570334, 2021.
[14] Kordzadze, A.A.; Demetrashvili, D.I. “Pollution of the Black Sea by Oil Products. Its Monitoring and Forecasting”. J. Georg. Geophys. Soc., 21, 47–60, 2018.
[15] Lavrova O. Yu and Mityagina M. I.“Satellite monitoring of oil slicks on the Black Sea surface”. Izvestiya, Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics, 49: 897–912, 2014.
[16] Lebedev S. A. “Estimation of the background pollution by oil products of the Black and Caspian Sea using remote sensing data and model calculations”. (in Russian), http://www.mkgtu.ru/docs/ KONF_SEM/lebedev.pdf, 2009.
[17] Lyubcheva, M., Lyubchev, L., Dimitrov, M., Panaitescu, M. “Assessment of health risk in the maritime industry”, Journal of Marine Technology and Environment, Vol.1:23-27, 2020.
[18] Mansyur, M., Sagitasari, R., Wangge, G., Sulistomo, A.B., Kekalih, A. “Long working hours, poor sleep quality, and work-family conflict: determinant factors of fatigue among Indonesian tugboat crewmembers”. BMC Publ. Health, 21 (1): 1832, 2021.
[19] Novac V., Rusu E. “Black Sea littoral military operations - environment impact”, Scientific Bulletin of Naval Academy, Romania, 607-616, 2018.
[20] Novac V., Rusu E., Stăvărache G. “Black Sea naval accidents – intervention management”, Mechanical Testing and Diagnosis, Vol. 2:11-14, 2019.
[21] Novac, V., Stăvărache, Gh., Rusu, E.” Naval accidents causative factors – a Black Sea case study”. International Multidisciplinary Scientific GeoConference: SGEM; Vol. 21, Issue. 3.1, DOI:10.5593/sgem2021/3.1/s15.88, 2021.
[22] Novac, V., and Rusu, E. “Analyzing a Black Sea naval accident through the stamp method”. Journal of Marine Technology and Environment, Vol.2:43-47, 2022.
[23] Onea F., Diaconu S., Rusu E. “Evaluation of the environmental conditions in the vicinity of the Romanian ports at the Black Sea”, Constanta Maritime University Annals, 19: 143-149, 2018.
[24] Rata, V. and Rusu, L. “Assessing the traffic risk along the main Black Sea maritime routes” Conference: International Conferences on Traffic and Transport Engineering, ICTTE Belgrade, 2018.
[25] Rata, V. and Rusu, L. “Assess the risk of shipping accidents in the Black Sea that may be based on structural damage”. 1st International Conference of Maritime Science & Technology, Dubrovnik, 2019.
[26] Review of Maritime Report.”Navigating stormy waters”. ISBN 9789211130263. https://safety4sea.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/UNCTAD-Review-of-maritime-transport-2022-2022_11.pdf, 2022.
[27] Review of Maritime Transport. “Towards a green and just transition”. https://unctad.org/ system/files/official-document/rmt2023_en.pdf, 2023.
[28] Saaty, T. L. (2012). Decision Making for Leaders: The Analytic Hierarchy Process for Decisions in a Complex World. Third Revised Edition. Pittsburgh: RWS Publications.
[29] Stingheru,C., Rusu, E., Gasparotti, C. “The Cause-Effect Method Used in Highlighting the Main Causes and Implications of Maritime Accidents in the Black Sea”, ICTTE Belgrade, Serbia, International Journal for Traffic and Transport Engineering, 283-289, 2018.
[30] Trigo, I.F., Davies, T.D., and Bigg, G.R. “Objective climatology of cyclones in the Mediterranean region”, J. Climate, 12: 1685–1696, 1999.
[31] Valchev, N., Davidan, I., Belberov, Z., Palazov, A., Valcheva, N. “Hindcasting and Assessment of the Western Black Sea Wind and Wave Climate”. J Environ Prot Ecol, 11 (3), 1001, 2010.
[32] Velea, L., Bojariu, R., Cica, R. “Occurrence of Extreme Winds over the Black Sea During January Under Present and Near Future Climate”, Turkish Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences 14: 973-979, 2014.
[33] Wang, J., Zhou, Y., Zhuang, L., Shi, L., Zhang, S. “A model of maritime accidents prediction based on multi-factor time series analysis”. Journal of Marine Engineering & Technology 1–13, 2023.
[34] *** https://www.wartsila.com/ insights/article/how-climate-change-is-impacting-shipping-and-maritime-trade.
Published
2023-12-04
How to Cite
1.
Gasparotti C. Ranking the main risks that can lead to the pollution of the marine environment in the Black Sea. Annals of ”Dunarea de Jos” University of Galati. Fascicle XI Shipbuilding [Internet]. 4Dec.2023 [cited 22Dec.2024];46:31-8. Available from: https://gup.ugal.ro/ugaljournals/index.php/fanship/article/view/6291
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